Postdoctoral Fellow
Projected climate change poses a large threat to ecosystems and species, but it is hard to know how to prioritize conservation efforts. This is where paleontology can be helpful in informing policy, ecology, and conservation. By exploring how animals have reacted to historic environmental changes, we can begin to predict which species will be most affected today. In doing so, we can prioritize where and how we should spend our resources to maximally protect biodiversity. If an animal is forced to shift where it lives in response to changing climates, it is difficult to tell whether a reduction in its geographic range is a typical reaction to that stressor or whether the species' range contraction may be leading to ultimate extinction. My research will examine past range contractions to establish a signal that indicates when a species is likely to go extinct. The signal will then be applied to modern range contractions to predict species' vulnerability to extinction.
Examining paleontological extinction patterns to predict modern extinction vulnerability
| PI(s): | Jenny L McGuire |
| Start Date: | 1-Sep-2010 |
| End Date: | 31-Jan-2012 |
| Keywords: | |
Projected climate change poses a large threat to ecosystems and species, but it is hard to know how to prioritize conservation efforts. This is where paleontology can be helpful in informing policy, ecology, and conservation. By exploring how animals have reacted to historic environmental changes, we can begin to predict which species will be most affected today. In doing so, we can prioritize where and how we should spend our resources to maximally protect biodiversity. If an animal is forced to shift where it lives in response to changing climates, it is difficult to tell whether a reduction in its geographic range is a typical reaction to that stressor or whether the species' range contraction may be leading to ultimate extinction. My research will examine past range contractions to establish a signal that indicates when a species is likely to go extinct. The signal will then be applied to modern range contractions to predict species' vulnerability to extinction.Related products
Publications- Conservation paleobiogeography: the past, present and future of species distributions McGuire, J.L. & Davis, E.B. 2014. Conservation Paleobiogeography: the past, present, and future of species distributions. Ecography. 37(11): 1092-4.
- Ecological niche models of mammalian glacial refugia show consistent bias Davis, E.B., McGuire, J.L., Orcutt, J. 2014. Niche reconstructions of glacial refugia show consistent bias. Ecography. 37(11): 1133-8.
- An horizon scan of biogeography Dawson, Michael N; Algar, Adam C; Antonelli, Alexandre; Dávalos, Liliana M; Davis, Edward; Early, Regan; et al.(2013). An horizon scan of biogeography. Frontiers of Biogeography, 5(2). fb_18854.
- Using the palaeontological record of Microtus to test species distribution models and reveal responses to climate change McGuire, J. L., Davis, E. B. (2013), Using the palaeontological record of Microtus to test species distribution models and reveal responses to climate change. Journal of Biogeography.
- Identifying California Microtus species using geometric morphometrics documents Quaternary geographic range contractions McGuire, J.L. (2011). Identifying California Microtus species using geometric morphometrics documents Quaternary geographic range contractions. Journal of Mammalogy, 92(6), 1383-1394. doi: 10.1644/10-MAMM-A-280.1
- A report on late Quaternary vertebrate fossil assemblages from the eastern San Francisco Bay region, California Tomiya, S., McGuire, J. L. et al. 2011. A report on late Quaternary vertebrate fossil assemblages from the eastern San Francisco Bay region, California. PaleoBios 30(2): 50-71.
- Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived? Anthony D. Barnosky, Nicholas Matzke, Susumu Tomiya, Guinevere O. U. Wogan, Brian Swartz, Tiago B. Quental, Charles Marshall, Jenny L. McGuire, Emily L. Lindsey, Kaitlin C. Maguire, Ben Mersey and Elizabeth A. Ferrer. 2011, Has the EarthâÃÂÃÂs sixth mass extinction already arrived?, Nature, volume 471, issue 7336, pp. 51-57
- McGuire, J.L. 2011. How Quaternary climate change patterns morphological variation in Microtus californicus. 71st Annual Meeting, Society of Vertebrate Paleontology, Las Vegas, NV. Presented in invited symposium: Symposium II- Climate Change and Vertebrate Response in the Evolving Arid West of Plio-Pleistocene North America.
- McGuire, J. L. 2011. Mammalian responses to climate change: a paleontological perspective. Lunch Bunch Seminar, Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.
- McGuire, J. L. 2011. Mammalian responses to climate change: a paleontological perspective. Department Seminar, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska at Lincoln.
- McGuire, J.L. 2011. Past climate set the stage for future responses to climate change: morphological evolution in Microtus californicus. Evolution Annual Meeting, Norman, OK. July 20, 2011.
- McGuire, J.L. and Davis, E.B. 2011. Using the paleontological record of Microtus to test species distribution models and reveal responses to climate change. Geological Society of America Annual Meeting, Minneapolis, MN. October 11, 2011.
- McGuire, J.L. 2010. Interpreting recent small-mammal range shifts in Yosemite in light of the Quaternary fossil record. 70th Annual Meeting, Society of Vertebrate Paleontology, Pittsburgh, PA. Romer Student Prize Session.
- Radio In Vivo. May 4, 2011. Dr. Jenny McGuire discusses conservation paleontology, the sixth mass extinction, and organisms responses to climate change. By Ernie Hood
- 2011. Earth's sixth mass extinction: is it almost here? National Science Foundation.
- 2011. Study offers warning about next potential mass extinction. USA Today.
- Science News. October 15, 2010. Climate changes, and there goes the neighborhood. By Susan Milius.
- 2010. Climate changes, and there goes the neighborhood. ScienceNews.
